Deadly Car Crash? Time to Play the Thai Lottery

Giulio Di Sturco for the International Herald Tribune

GHOSTLY GUIDES Paan Padthong, a fortune teller at the Mae Nak shrine, where Thais go for inspiration in picking lottery numbers.

BANGKOK — At a bend in a busy Bangkok road stands the Tree of 100 Corpses, a shrine to pedestrians who have died in traffic accidents nearby.

People come from all over Thailand to commune with spirits they believe reside in the tree, which is wrapped in golden cloth and surrounded by hundreds of figurines. They also come to find winning lottery numbers.

“I made a wish to the tree and asked that the number pop up in my dream,” said Kriengsak Konart, a motorcycle taxi driver who works in the area. The number 45 came to him in his sleep, he said, and he played a variation of it.

“I won,” he said.

The search for lottery numbers in Thailand can be confusing to outsiders. Many Thais believe that calamity can beget good fortune, and that tragedy may give rise to powerful ghosts who offer guidance on winning numbers. Newspapers report the license plate numbers of cars involved in gruesome accidents. Lottery aficionados note the highway route numbers where accidents took place, tally the casualties and play the numbers. Nothing is seen as too horrible to be a source of good luck, not plane crashes or massacres.

“This is all about superstition,” said Worawit Srianunraksa, the front-page editor of The Daily News here, which, like other Thai newspapers, runs articles packed with numbers that may be useful to lottery players. “People, especially in rural areas, still believe in ghosts and spirits, things that you cannot explain. And they are able to find numbers in any news event.”

Thailand’s favorite topic of conversation is probably food, but a close second is the underground lottery. The game, illegal but tolerated, is played by nearly one-third of a population that marries deeply held superstitions with a proclivity for fun. The search for numbers to play is something close to a national obsession, culminating twice a month in the drawing of plastic balls to decide the winners.

Inspiration does not always come from tragedy. Regular lottery players say that numbers occur to them in dreams or cosmically appear in the bark of trees. They may be gleaned from oddities spotted by villagers and reported in the national news media — a six-legged turtle or a lizard born with an extra appendage, to name two that were reported last month. People play the numbers of the hotel rooms where movie stars stay, the prime minister’s birthday or any numbers related to the royal family.

But many Thais believe that the best numbers come from powerful ghosts, those who have endured terrible pain or suffering.

One of the country’s most famous ghosts is Mae Nak, who is honored at a shrine in southeastern Bangkok next to a Buddhist temple. According to Thai legend, Mae Nak died in childbirth while her husband, a soldier, was away on a military campaign. When he returned, his wife was a ghost soaring through the house.

Paan Padthong, 72, one of many fortune tellers who work near the Mae Nak shrine, said that men and women visited for a variety of reasons. Young men ask the ghost for assistance to avoid being drafted into the military. Women ask for help in conceiving a child. Students seek a cosmic boost on exams.

Mr. Paan said he felt Mae Nak’s presence floating above the shrine. “As we are talking, she hears us,” he said.

Those who go to the shrine for lottery numbers reach into a clay jar and pull out numbered balls. Or they scratch the bark of a tree inside the shrine, looking for digits.

Mr. Paan said they were trying too hard. “If you are someone who possesses good luck, all you have to do is step into the shrine and you will start to see numbers,” he said. “The numbers will just appear.”

The unlucky, on the other hand, need to realize their limitations, he said. “You can scratch the tree all day long, and you’ll never see any numbers.”

In a modern and cosmopolitan city like Bangkok, there are people, of course, who reject superstition. But it speaks to the Thai ethos of live and let live that the nonbelievers do not criticize those who seek supernatural help for their lottery habit. The attitude is captured in a Thai maxim: “If you don’t believe it, don’t insult it.”

Poypiti Amatatham contributed reporting.

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Poll: Would you buy a blue, pink or yellow iPhone 5S?

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Flu? Malaria? Disease forecasters look to the sky

NEW YORK (AP) — Only a 10 percent chance of showers today, but a 70 percent chance of flu next month.

That's the kind of forecasting health scientists are trying to move toward, as they increasingly include weather data in their attempts to predict disease outbreaks.

In one recent study, two scientists reported they could predict — more than seven weeks in advance — when flu season was going to peak in New York City. Theirs was just the latest in a growing wave of computer models that factor in rainfall, temperature or other weather conditions to forecast disease.

Health officials are excited by this kind of work and the idea that it could be used to fine-tune vaccination campaigns or other disease prevention efforts.

At the same time, experts note that outbreaks are influenced as much, or more, by human behavior and other factors as by the weather. Some argue weather-based outbreak predictions still have a long way to go. And when government health officials warned in early December that flu season seemed to be off to an early start, they said there was no evidence it was driven by the weather.

This disease-forecasting concept is not new: Scientists have been working on mathematical models to predict outbreaks for decades and have long factored in the weather. They have known, for example, that temperature and rainfall affect the breeding of mosquitoes that carry malaria, West Nile virus and other dangerous diseases.

Recent improvements in weather-tracking have helped, including satellite technology and more sophisticated computer data processing.

As a result, "in the last five years or so, there's been quite an improvement and acceleration" in weather-focused disease modeling, said Ira Longini, a University of Florida biostatistician who's worked on outbreak prediction projects.

Some models have been labeled successes.

In the United States, researchers at Johns Hopkins University and the University of New Mexico tried to predict outbreaks of hantavirus in the late 1990s. They used rain and snow data and other information to study patterns of plant growth that attract rodents. People catch the disease from the droppings of infected rodents.

"We predicted what would happen later that year," said Gregory Glass, a Johns Hopkins researcher who worked on the project.

More recently, in east Africa, satellites have been used to predict rainfall by measuring sea-surface temperatures and cloud density. That's been used to generate "risk maps" for Rift Valley fever — a virus that spreads from animals to people and in severe cases can cause blindness or death. Researchers have said the system in some cases has given two to six weeks advance warning.

Last year, other researchers using satellite data in east Africa said they found that a small change in average temperature was a warning sign cholera cases would double within four months.

"We are getting very close to developing a viable forecasting system" against cholera that can help health officials in African countries ramp up emergency vaccinations and other efforts, said a statement by one of the authors, Rita Reyburn of the International Vaccine Institute in Seoul, South Korea.

Some diseases are hard to forecast, such as West Nile virus. Last year, the U.S. suffered one of its worst years since the virus arrived in 1999. There were more than 2,600 serious illnesses and nearly 240 deaths.

Officials said the mild winter, early spring and very hot summer helped spur mosquito breeding and the spread of the virus. But the danger wasn't spread uniformly. In Texas, the Dallas area was particularly hard-hit, while other places, including some with similar weather patterns and the same type of mosquitoes, were not as affected.

"Why Dallas, and not areas with similar ecological conditions? We don't really know," said Roger Nasci of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. He is chief of the CDC branch that tracks insect-borne viruses.

Some think flu lends itself to outbreak forecasting — there's already a predictability to the annual winter flu season. But that's been tricky, too.

Seasonal flu reports come from doctors' offices, but those show the disease when it's already spreading. Some researchers have studied tweets on Twitter and searches on Google, but their work has offered a jump of only a week or two on traditional methods.

In the study of New York City flu cases published last month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the authors said they could foredcast, by up to seven weeks, the peak of flu season.

They designed a model based on weather and flu data from past years, 2003-09. In part, their design was based on earlier studies that found flu virus spreads better when the air is dry and turns colder. They made calculations based on humidity readings and on Google Flu Trends, which tracks how many people are searching each day for information on flu-related topics (often because they're beginning to feel ill).

Using that model, they hope to try real-time predictions as early as next year, said Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University, who led the work.

"It's certainly exciting," said Lyn Finelli, the CDC's flu surveillance chief. She said the CDC supports Shaman's work, but agency officials are eager to see follow-up studies showing the model can predict flu trends in places different from New York, like Miami.

Despite the optimism by some, Dr. Edward Ryan, a Harvard University professor of immunology and infectious diseases, is cautious about weather-based prediction models. "I'm not sure any of them are ready for prime time," he said.

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Asia stocks eke out gains on China hopes, oil eases

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Most Asian stock markets edged higher on Thursday on hopes of a steady economic revival in China, although oil gave back part of the previous session's strong gains as investors took some money off the table and braced for more U.S. budget battles.

The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index of stocks <.miapj0000pus> rose 0.2 percent following Wednesday's 2 percent jump on relief that U.S. politicians had averted the "fiscal cliff".

Data from China showing the services sector expanded in December continued to underpin expectations of an economic recovery that has helped spur a strong rally in Hong Kong-listed Chinese shares <.hsce> over the past month.

The China Enterprises index <.hsce> which rallied more than 4 percent in the previous session eased 0.2 percent. Onshore Chinese markets will resume trading on Friday.

"China looks like it's improving at the margin and the market has momentum that could last for at least a few months," said Christian Keilland, head of trading at BTIG in Hong Kong.

"Investors seem to have accepted that reforms are underway but they're going to happen at a slower pace."

Australian stocks <.axjo> rose 0.7 percent to their highest in more than 19 months, with mining giants Rio Tinto up 2.4 percent and BHP Billiton up 0.8 percent, among the top gainers on the benchmark S&P ASX/200 index. <.axjo/>

South Korea's Kospi <.ks11> underperformed the region, falling 0.4 percent as automakers and other exporters slumped on a stronger Korean won, which hit a 16-month high against the dollar overnight.

In other currency markets, the Japanese yen bounced after hitting a 29-month low versus the dollar earlier in the day but analysts warned that any strength is likely to be short-lived.

"Technically dollar/yen looks somewhat overbought here. It's gone a long way in a very short time," said Callum Henderson, global head of FX research for Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore, adding that the dollar could see some consolidation in the near term before heading higher.

The euro which in overnight trading was close to a 8-1/2 month high against the dollar, slipped 0.1 percent.

The U.S. dollar rose 0.2 percent <.dxy> against a basket of major currencies.

President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans face even bigger budget battles in the next two months after a hard-fought deal averted the fiscal cliff of automatic tightening that threatened to push the U.S. into recession.

Strength in the dollar and profit-taking pushed oil prices lower with Brent crude slipping 0.3 percent and U.S. crude futures down 19 cents to $92.93.

"After the initial excitement, reality sets in," said Victor Shum, oil consultant at IHS Purvin & Gertz. "There will be other negotiations and the deal is a compromise."

(Reporting by Vikram Subhedar; Editing by Kim Coghill and Eric Meijer)

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U.S. War in Afghanistan Has Echoes of Soviet Experience

WASHINGTON — The young president who ascended to office as a change agent decides to end the costly and unpopular war in Afghanistan. He seeks an exit with honor by pledging long-term financial support to allies in Kabul, while urging reconciliation with the insurgency. But some senior advisers lobby for a deliberately slow withdrawal, and propose leaving thousands of troops behind to train and support Afghan security forces.

This is a nearly exact description of the endgame conundrum facing President Obama as he prepares for a critical visit by Hamid Karzai, the Afghan president, planned for early January.

But the account is actually drawn from declassified Soviet archives describing Mikhail S. Gorbachev’s closed-door struggles with his Politburo and army chiefs to end the Kremlin’s intervention in Afghanistan — one that began with a commando raid, coup and modest goals during Christmas week of 1979 but became, after a decade, what Mr. Gorbachev derided as “a bleeding wound.”

What mostly is remembered about the withdrawal is the Soviet Union’s humiliation, and the ensuing factional bloodletting across Afghanistan that threw the country into a vicious civil war. It ended with Taliban control and the establishment of a safe haven for Al Qaeda before the terrorist attacks on Sept. 11, 2001.

But scholars who have studied the Soviet archives point out another lesson for the Obama administration as it manages the pullout of American and allied combat forces from Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

“The main thing the Soviets did right was that they continued large-scale military assistance to the regime they left behind after the final withdrawal in ’89,” said Mark N. Katz, a professor at George Mason University and author of “Leaving Without Losing: The War on Terror After Iraq and Afghanistan” (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2012).

“As long as the Afghan regime received the money and the weapons, they did pretty well — and held on to power for three years,” Mr. Katz said. The combat effectiveness of Kabul’s security forces increased after the Soviet withdrawal, when the fight for survival become wholly their own.

But then the Soviet Union dissolved in December 1991, and the new Russian leader, Boris N. Yeltsin, heeded urgings of the United States and other Western powers to halt aid to the Communist leadership in Afghanistan, not just arms and money, but also food and fuel. The Kremlin-backed government in Kabul fell three months later.

To be sure, there are significant contrasts between the two interventions in Afghanistan. The Soviet invasion and occupation were condemned as illegal aggression, while the American one was embraced by the international community, including Russia, as a “just war,” one with limited goals of routing the Taliban and eliminating Al Qaeda. That war of necessity has since evolved into a war of choice, one the Obama administration is working to end as quickly as is feasible.

Despite the differences going in, both the Soviet Union and the United States soon learned that Afghanistan is a land where foreigners aspiring to create nations in their image must combat not just the Taliban but tribalism, orthodoxy, corruption and a medieval view of women. As well, Pakistan has had interests at odds with those of the neighboring government in Afghanistan, whether Kabul was an ally of Moscow or of Washington.

“The Soviet Union did not understand religious and ethnic factors sufficiently, and overestimated the capacity of Afghan society to move very fast toward a modern era, in this case socialism,” said Svetlana Savranskaya, director of Russian programs at the National Security Archive, an independent research center at George Washington University.

“Here I see similarities with the approach of the United States, especially with all the discussion about trying to leave behind an Afghanistan that is democratic and respects the rights of women, ideas that simply are not accepted across the broad society there,” said Ms. Savranskaya, who has written extensively on the Soviet archives.

If the Soviet experience offers any guidance to the current American withdrawal, she said, it would be to accelerate the departure of foreign combat forces — but to leave in their place a “sustained, multiyear international involvement in military training, education and civilian infrastructure projects, and maybe not focusing on building democracy as much as improving the lives of the common people.”

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All of 2012 in One 4-Minute Video

We realize there’s only so much time one can spend in a day watching new trailers, viral video clips, and shaky cell phone footage of people arguing on live television. This is why every day The Atlantic Wire highlights the videos that truly earn your five minutes (or less) of attention. Today:  

RELATED: ‘Roseanne’ Predicted Internet Addiction; A Weather Alert from Hell

Filmmaker Ryan James Yezak boiled down the biggest stories of 2012 into four minutes. And, yes, Honey Boo Boo made it in there:

RELATED: Even Batman Gets Tripped up by Apple Maps

RELATED: The Videos You Shouldn’t (and Probably Couldn’t) Try at Home

So, raise your hand if you knew Patrick Stewart and company were having this much fun behind the scenes at Star Trek: The Next Generation. 

RELATED: Here’s a Video of George Takei Reading ’50 Shades of Grey’

RELATED: Cookie Monster Batman and the Dog You Wish You Had

Marvel’s Stan Lee — the guy who created characters like the Amazing Spider-Man, Thor, the Incredible Hulk, Iron Man, and the X-Men — turned 90 the other day. In honor of him and his heroes, here are all his cameos from all of the Marvel movies he helped create: 

And, finally, it’s 2013 somewhere… right? Please take caution when announcing that news to this very excitable baby. Happy New Year!

Wireless News Headlines – Yahoo! News

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Jessica Simpson and Kendall & Kylie Jenner Make Readers Smile - and Frown

01/01/2013 at 07:00 PM EST

Splash News Online; Michael Simon/Startraks

What's on the minds of PEOPLE readers this week? We love getting your feedback, and as always, you weighed in – even while celebrating during the holidays – with plenty of reactions to all of our stories.

From Kelly Osbourne's dramatic weight loss to Jessica Simpson's happy baby news to the tragic death of hero surfer Dylan Smith in Puerto Rico, readers responded to what made them happy, what made them laugh out loud and what made them sad this week.

Check out the articles with the top reactions on the site this week, and keep clicking on the emoticons at the bottom of every story to tell us what you think!

Kelly Osbourne says loving herself was the key to her 60-lb. weight loss. She had to get to a place where she respected herself enough to take care of her health – and she emerged a fierce style star who is not afraid to rock a bikini.

Jessica Simpson became a new mom just 8 months ago – so the news that she's expecting baby No. 2 with fiancé Eric Johnson made readers say, "Wow!"

Reality stars Kendall and Kylie Jenner showed off expensive Christmas gifts on Instagram, and their pricey public display turned many readers off. From a pair of Louboutin spike heels to Balenciaga boots with a more than $1,000 price tag, the teens cleaned up with lavish presents that most could only dream about.

Dylan Smith captured our hearts with his heroic efforts during Superstorm Sandy, saving six people on his surfboard. But the Queens, N.Y., lifeguard, 23, who was named one of PEOPLE's Heroes of the Year, drowned on Dec. 24 in a surfing accident off Puerto Rico.

Does the idea of Tom Cruise dating a new woman make you laugh? Maybe. A story that falsely linked the actor romantically to a 26-year-old restaurant manager, had readers clicking LOL. Or maybe the funny part was this quote from a source, who told told PEOPLE: "He's single and will be talking to women – all of whom he won't be instantly dating."

Check back next week for another must-read roundup, and see what readers are reacting to every day here.

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Brain image study: Fructose may spur overeating

This is your brain on sugar — for real. Scientists have used imaging tests to show for the first time that fructose, a sugar that saturates the American diet, can trigger brain changes that may lead to overeating.

After drinking a fructose beverage, the brain doesn't register the feeling of being full as it does when simple glucose is consumed, researchers found.

It's a small study and does not prove that fructose or its relative, high-fructose corn syrup, can cause obesity, but experts say it adds evidence they may play a role. These sugars often are added to processed foods and beverages, and consumption has risen dramatically since the 1970s along with obesity. A third of U.S. children and teens and more than two-thirds of adults are obese or overweight.

All sugars are not equal — even though they contain the same amount of calories — because they are metabolized differently in the body. Table sugar is sucrose, which is half fructose, half glucose. High-fructose corn syrup is 55 percent fructose and 45 percent glucose. Some nutrition experts say this sweetener may pose special risks, but others and the industry reject that claim. And doctors say we eat too much sugar in all forms.

For the study, scientists used magnetic resonance imaging, or MRI, scans to track blood flow in the brain in 20 young, normal-weight people before and after they had drinks containing glucose or fructose in two sessions several weeks apart.

Scans showed that drinking glucose "turns off or suppresses the activity of areas of the brain that are critical for reward and desire for food," said one study leader, Yale University endocrinologist Dr. Robert Sherwin. With fructose, "we don't see those changes," he said. "As a result, the desire to eat continues — it isn't turned off."

What's convincing, said Dr. Jonathan Purnell, an endocrinologist at Oregon Health & Science University, is that the imaging results mirrored how hungry the people said they felt, as well as what earlier studies found in animals.

"It implies that fructose, at least with regards to promoting food intake and weight gain, is a bad actor compared to glucose," said Purnell. He wrote a commentary that appears with the federally funded study in Wednesday's Journal of the American Medical Association.

Researchers now are testing obese people to see if they react the same way to fructose and glucose as the normal-weight people in this study did.

What to do? Cook more at home and limit processed foods containing fructose and high-fructose corn syrup, Purnell suggested. "Try to avoid the sugar-sweetened beverages. It doesn't mean you can't ever have them," but control their size and how often they are consumed, he said.

A second study in the journal suggests that only severe obesity carries a high death risk — and that a few extra pounds might even provide a survival advantage. However, independent experts say the methods are too flawed to make those claims.

The study comes from a federal researcher who drew controversy in 2005 with a report that found thin and normal-weight people had a slightly higher risk of death than those who were overweight. Many experts criticized that work, saying the researcher — Katherine Flegal of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — painted a misleading picture by including smokers and people with health problems ranging from cancer to heart disease. Those people tend to weigh less and therefore make pudgy people look healthy by comparison.

Flegal's new analysis bolsters her original one, by assessing nearly 100 other studies covering almost 2.9 million people around the world. She again concludes that very obese people had the highest risk of death but that overweight people had a 6 percent lower mortality rate than thinner people. She also concludes that mildly obese people had a death risk similar to that of normal-weight people.

Critics again have focused on her methods. This time, she included people too thin to fit what some consider to be normal weight, which could have taken in people emaciated by cancer or other diseases, as well as smokers with elevated risks of heart disease and cancer.

"Some portion of those thin people are actually sick, and sick people tend to die sooner," said Donald Berry, a biostatistician at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center in Houston.

The problems created by the study's inclusion of smokers and people with pre-existing illness "cannot be ignored," said Susan Gapstur, vice president of epidemiology for the American Cancer Society.

A third critic, Dr. Walter Willett of the Harvard School of Public Health, was blunter: "This is an even greater pile of rubbish" than the 2005 study, he said. Willett and others have done research since the 2005 study that found higher death risks from being overweight or obese.

Flegal defended her work. She noted that she used standard categories for weight classes. She said statistical adjustments were made for smokers, who were included to give a more real-world sample. She also said study participants were not in hospitals or hospices, making it unlikely that large numbers of sick people skewed the results.

"We still have to learn about obesity, including how best to measure it," Flegal's boss, CDC Director Dr. Thomas Frieden, said in a written statement. "However, it's clear that being obese is not healthy - it increases the risk of diabetes, heart disease, cancer, and many other health problems. Small, sustainable increases in physical activity and improvements in nutrition can lead to significant health improvements."

___

Online:

Obesity info: http://www.cdc.gov/obesity/data/trends.html

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Marilynn Marchione can be followed at http://twitter.com/MMarchioneAP

Mike Stobbe can be followed at http://twitter.com/MikeStobbe

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U.S. fiscal cliff deal prompts broad rally

LONDON (Reuters) - European shares, oil and gold rose strongly on Wednesday after U.S. politicians struck a long-awaited deal to avoid a fiscal crisis, while safe-haven dollar and German government bonds fell.

Lawmakers approved a plan to prevent huge tax increases and delay spending cuts that together would have pushed the world's largest economy off the "fiscal cliff" and into a likely recession.

European markets followed their Asian counterparts and rallied on the news, while futures markets pointed to Wall Street doing the same.

London's FTSE <.ftse>, Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> and CAC 40 <.fchi> in Paris opened between 1.4-1.9 percent higher, pushing the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 <.fteu3> up 1.3 percent and the MSCI world index <.miwd00000pus> 0.8 percent.

"This is great news for global growth and explains why shares and other growth-related assets are up strongly today," said Shane Oliver, strategist at AMP Capital.

Although the U.S. deal is not as far-reaching as markets had wanted, Tuesday's approval by the House of Representatives of a plan already backed by the Senate allayed fears that Republican objections to the heavy emphasis on taxes rather than spending cuts could have scuppered an agreement.

Assets which are traditionally see as more risky rose across the board with crude oil futures up 1.1 percent, gold gaining $7 an ounce and copper futures in London up 1.7 percent.

In currency markets the euro rose to $1.3281 as the dollar fell 0.5 percent against a basket of major currencies <.dxy>.

The Japanese yen also continued its slide, hitting its lowest level since July 2010, as investors bet that the Bank of Japan would have to take ever-more aggressive easing steps to support the economy and satisfy the new government.

The pattern was the same for bonds, where prices of higher-yielding Spanish and Italian government bonds rose and the German equivalent, usually favored by risk-averse investors, fell. The Bund future was last 89 ticks down at 144.75.

"The compromise is supportive for risk sentiment as we've seen in a few markets already and it should weigh on Bunds which should correct in line with (U.S.) Treasuries. Treasuries could even underperform," said Rainer Guntermann, a strategist at Commerzbank.

(Reporting by Marc Jones; editing by David Stamp)

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After Rocket Attack, an Israeli City Seems Resigned to More in the Future

Rina Castelnuovo for The New York Times

In interviews, residents said a long-term solution to the conflict with the Palestinians was unlikely in their lifetimes.

RISHON LEZION, Israel — For the seven years she has been selling real estate here in Israel’s fourth-largest city, Ahuva Madmoni has had clients with the usual range of priorities: view, high floor, square footage, proximity to good schools. “Today,” Ms. Madmoni said, “the first question of the couples is, ‘Does the apartment have a safe room?’ ”

Such a demand was hardly imaginable here before a rocket struck a building in the western part of town on Nov. 20 — the first fired from the Gaza Strip to ever directly hit a residential area in the populated center of Israel. It may be the most discernible effect of the volatility of the last two months.

In that time, Israelis were confronted with an eight-day conflict with Gaza; the Palestinians’ status upgrade at the United Nations; international condemnation of Israel’s settlement push in East Jerusalem; and an election campaign in which candidates seem to be trying to out-conservative one another.

All of the political activity has certainly increased conversation about “the situation,” local shorthand for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But if the intense fighting with Gaza heightened concerns about safety, its aftermath seems only to have renewed many residents’ resignation to what they see as the unlikeliness of a long-term solution in their lifetimes.

In conversations with 30 people — most around a downtown park or inside the popular Ikea cafe — many said their focus had quickly returned to more mundane concerns about jobs, children and apartment rents. Some talked of leaving the troubled country or worried that their children might — in line with a recent poll for the newspaper Haaretz indicating that 37 percent of Israelis were considering doing so. And in the interviews here, at least half said they did not see anyone worth voting for on Jan. 22.

“People are looking after their personal factors — they’re so skeptical about the global changing, they say ‘Oh, I’ll worry about my survival,’ ” explained Ayal Sheffer, 43, a publishing executive with three young daughters who was having lunch at Ikea after shopping for a bed.

“I just want quiet for my children and my country,” he said. But as for the Palestinians, he added, “I don’t think any contract we’d do with them would give us quiet.”

“We want to pay the price, but we don’t believe in the other side,” Mr. Sheffer said.

Rishon LeZion, about seven miles south of Tel Aviv, was founded in 1882 by European Jews. Its middle-class population has doubled over the past two decades, including a large community of Ethiopians and an even larger contingent of immigrants from the former Soviet Union. There is a wide beachfront path filled with walkers and joggers at sunrise, a skyline of tall apartment blocks and cranes building new ones.

The first blue-and-white flag with a Star of David was raised here in 1885, according to city officials, and in 1887 a local resident, Shmuel Cohen, combined the poem “Hatikvah” with a European melody — which later became Israel’s national anthem. In the last national elections, in 2009, Rishon voted in slightly higher numbers than Israel as a whole for the two leading parties, Likud and Kadima, as well as for the Russian-dominated Yisrael Beiteinu, but gave less support to the ultra-Orthodox Shas and far-left Meretz parties.

Mayor Dov Zur, 57, said that as a child growing up here, he “was quite a believer in the peace process,” but “then, like most Israelis, I abandoned this belief.” His former confidence returned after meetings between Israeli mayors and their Palestinian counterparts in the West Bank.

“People are living on both sides of the border, they want good life on both sides,” he said. “The position of mayor, never mind if it’s in Israel or Palestine, it’s a make-decision work. What we find in this discussion is to be practical about the solution to our problem.”

In many ways, the interviews here reflect several recent statewide surveys. A December poll by Da’at showed that 12 percent to 14 percent named peace as their highest priority, a drop from 17 percent in January 2012, 19 percent in 2008 and in 1998, and 24 percent in 1992. A separate poll on behalf of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs found that 83 percent of Israeli Jews do not believe that a withdrawal to the 1967 borders and a division of Jerusalem would bring an end to the conflict. And a poll for the pro-peace group Blue-White Future, a group that supports Israel’s taking unilateral steps to force a two-state solution, found that support for a two-state solution was higher among older respondents.

“It’s sometimes worse, sometimes better,” Sofia Turgelan, 34, said of the conflict she has known all her life. “Now it’s quiet, but maybe in six months or one year, it all comes out again.”

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